USC-Texas: 2005 Rose Bowl

I think USC is going to win.

1) USC has a dominant running game and also a sophisticated passing game. I don't entirely subscribe to Heisman Pundit's notion that sophistication on offense is everything, but when sophistication is added to dominant line play in the running game, things are very different. The primary point here is balance, and USC has it in spades. A well-balanced team will beat a one-dimensional team 4 out of 5 times, and while that means Texas — which has a solid running game and an extremely unsophisticated passing game — will win 1 out of 5, I'll take the odds.

2) Texas has an incredible defense, with a solid secondary and a stellar defensive line. However, their (relative) weakness is at the one spot that I think makes or breaks defenses when confronted with balanced offenses: linebacker. Linebackers are like midfielders: they have to do everything, and they have to do it well, and they have to play on-field-manager. I think Texas might be able to stuff USC's runners on the line. I think Texas may be able to jam the receivers and drape them in coverage. But what about the mid-sized stuff? Little plays hurt just as much as big ones.

3) Vince Young is good. Vince Young is excellent. Vince Young is, regardless of what anyone says, not a very good passer. I know that the conventional wisdom at the moment says that Leinart is overrated as a passer and Young is underrated, but look at the types of passes each is capable of making. Young can throw a spot-on bomb. Young can scramble and hit someone on a broken play (even if he prefers to run, which is, in the long run, eventually going to become a bad idea). Leinart can make every single pass anyone has ever conceived, he can hit every single route in the perfect spot, he is calm enough and mobile enough not to get sacked even when he's feeling pressure.

I'm not sure how USC's defense is going to match up with Texas' offense; the one is very good, and the other is just good enough. But even if we give the benefit of the doubt to USC, Texas just isn't balanced enough in the ways that matter — the sideline routes on 3rd and long, the multiple sets and movement that defenses hate, the progression through receivers (this last is why Young had so many highlights on broken plays: Texas' schemes were such that plays become broken).

And 4) USC has been here before. USC has won 46 of their last 47 (if it weren't for that 3OT game against Cal, they would be on track to break Oklahoma's record tonight). Texas is good, but a few months ago, people were wondering if they could beat a team that had lost three games and was starting a second-string sophomore at quarterback.

So I think USC is going to win. But I wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong. What do I know?